Monday, December 15, 2014

How to make millions with crude oil


Monthly chart of USO (West Texas Oil ETF)
Key broken support level (below 2009 lows), let it dip further ...
Wait for a base pattern, then focus on very long term call options
Will let you know when I do it

Gold ETF (GLD) update


As mentioned a few weeks ago, there was a bullish divergence in GLD
Now what ?
Main trend is still bearish, but the divergence has now created an interesting pattern.
Higher lows, a clear re entry level, as well as an exit one
Gut feelings ; expecting a tighter channel pattern, followed by a BIG move

Friday, December 12, 2014

Unilever plc (UL), emerging market indicator


Unilever is usually a pretty good indicator for emerging markets (a high percentage of their earnings comes from frontier and emerging markets)
Current chart shows a high probable reversal towards $40.50
Then ? Too early to make that kind of call, lets see if eventually price can find support at its 50 days SMA

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)


Tesla's weekly chart ; Let's see if we have all the ingredients for a major short
1) In the news constantly, bringing every fools out there
2) Broken main trend
3) Head and Shoulder Pattern ?
4) "Cult" like following for its CEO ....
5) We now need some nasty news ...
PS ; This is not about Tesla being a good company or not, its about buying it a the right price ; around 140

Monday, December 8, 2014

Christmas problems ?


Walmart vs Amazon.com
Christmas problem for Amazon ?
Amazon's pattern is clear ; lower highs .... bearish
Walmart on the other hand is making new highs ...

Energy ETF


Clear break down of the energy ETF (XLE) , see current target on the chart
In a few months, we will face a "deep value" sector
Am expecting price to dive "below" the current target.
So, be patient, and be eventually ready to start accumulating little by little positions in this ETF.
The key to success is "rebalancing" a portfolio
Surprised to see the SP 500 still in an uptrend (with a negative divergence)
Energy is an heavy weight within the $SPX

Dollar vs South African Rand


$USD Dollar vs South African Rand, monthly chart
Are we facing a long term ABC pattern ? C is now above A


Gold monthly chart, on the verge of a major break down ???
Gold bearish reversal (2012) confirms the "B" pattern in the $USD vs South African Rand
What can we conclude ? A Gold crash ? A huge move up from the $USD index ?
Too early to say, but it clearly is a major warning signal

Makasi divergence on Techs big caps

Current reading on Tech big caps with bearish divergence
Microsoft ; Lower highs, warning bearish trigger below 48
Apple ; Lower highs, warning bearish trigger below 113
Oracle ; Huge bearish divergence ! Key bearish trigger below 41.25
Google ; Mentioned it in a prior post, big divergence, watch the 520 levels for support
Yahoo ; Bearish divergence, but price action shows strength
Qualcomm ; All signals bearish, slight oversold, stay out
IBM ; Long channel pattern, all signals still bearish, negative divergence

Intel ; Uptrend intact, no divergence

Friday, December 5, 2014

Silver ETF (SLV)


Silver ETF (SLV) daily chart update
Makasi trading system still has a bullish divergence
Main key signals are still bearish on SLV
Its 50 days SMA did serve as a key resistance level
Early gap was closed
See re entry level
GLD (Gold ETF) same story, use the break out above 117 has a re entry level
Gut feeling ? Do not expect a sudden price rise in both SLV & GLD, we first need a "channel pattern", with several higher lows, followed by a bearish reversal in the $USD Dollar index

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Light crude versus the Dollar index


Pay close attention to the crude/dollar pair
A break below $64 (light crude oil) will send the $USD Index above its 2005 high

Techs blue chips


Google weekly chart shows a clear warning level (see arrow @ 520)
Price is also below its long term moving average
So whats holding up QQQ? (Nasdaq 100 ETF) ;
Microsoft, bullish, warning level stands @ 46
Intel, bullish, warning level stands @ 35
Apple, bullish, warning level stands @ 105


Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Makasi trading system update

We did see some wild moves in Gold & Silver last week, but the bullish divergence remained intact.
One clear fact ; Both GLD & SLV remain in a bearish trend, however a divergence appears first in the options market, followed by a price/volume move

SP 500 ; Uptrend intact, bearish divergence still active, 2040 is still our active warning level.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) Uptrend intact, divergence = Neutral
$USD Dollar index ; Uptrend intact, bearish divergence active, 88.40 is our warning level
Energy (Gas & Light Crude), bearish trend intact, divergence back to negative
RSX (Russia ETF) ; Bearish trend intact, divergence bearish

Friday, November 21, 2014

Makasi trading update


QQQ (Nasdaq 100) warning ;
Makasi trading system has now a clear negative divergence
This is NOT a sell/short trigger
Focus on that warning level
Same goes for the $SPX (SP 500) ; warning level stands @ 2040
SLV & GLD are still in a bullish divergence
Crude oil now also shows a bullish divergence
Forex Bearish full signals ; $EUR $CHF $GBP
          Bearish with bullish divergence ; $JPY $CAD $AUD $NZD

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Stay long on Japan


With all those negative news coming out of Japan, one would assume the worst ...
The Nikkei's price action (as well as the fall in the Yen), confirms that it is anticipating a HUGE stimulus package !
What could make me change my mind ? A drop below 16200

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

US Dollar index


$USD Dollar index daily chart
While most "indicators" are quite bullish, the Makasi trading system just issued
a negative divergence (based on the ETF UUP, note that I need the option data)
Bearish triggers are right below 87.30
Makasi still has a buy signal, but the negative divergence comes from this clear tight channel pattern we are now facing.
Note that this level confirms the 2010 high where the $USD spiked up and reversed !
Rules of the game ;
1) Have a clear plan
2) Focus on the risk (use stops)
3) Be ready to always change your mind (flexible, forget your ego)
4) Always ..... always expect the unexpected !!!!
5) Why ??? Your mind likes to comprehend things ; Ok, here is a probable why ... Gold & Silver bouncing up is NOT good news for the $USD !!!!

Monday, November 17, 2014

About the Makasi trading system

I received several emails asking me about this system.
First, let me be clear ; We all need a "system", a road map, a "how to" guide.
Why ? It reduces the risk of making mistakes.
This system uses daily settings, but also adds options data.
The system in itself does not matter, really, this just fits my "style of trading"
If you have been reading me for a while, you know that I mostly keep it very simple ...
Simple charts, usually using basic moving averages, basic patterns, volume, and key news events!
So why hide the settings on this one ?
Simple ... its a formula I discovered by mistake ...
It all started with some basic questions ; do some key moving averages affect options data on a specific stock or ETF?
Taking notes on each ETFs daily did really help (option activity)
Why the options market ? Call it my early warning indicator
Does it work ? We shall see ... follow the posts, we will all soon find out :-)))

UNG Gas Fund


Buy signal issued using the Makasi trading system
Stop stands @ 21.50
Pay attention to those multiple "fake moves"

Friday, November 14, 2014

Gold and Silver ETF and the Makasi system

Both SLV and GLD have a "buy" signal using the new trading system I built.
SLV stop stands @ 14.6
GLD stop stands @ 110
Warning, this is the "short term" trading signal
Will keep it updated as the Mid & LT signals are activated (or not)
Option data does confirm buy signal