Saturday, May 24, 2008

India Fund, Inc. (IFN)

In his latest book, Red Sun: Travels in Naxalite Country,

journalist Sudeep Chakravarti, 44, argues that India could implode in a war fuelled by the anger of the poor and the dispossessed.
In a wide-ranging interview with Deputy Managing Editor Sarita Ravindranath, Chakravarti talks about the sham that is 'Superstar India' and his attempt to shake Middle India out of its mall-stupor and humanise a tragic conflict: Of a country at war with itself.
Your book goes against the grain of the 'Superstar India' image that mainstream media is celebrating. You focus instead on 250 million people who live on less than Rs 12 a day and the Maoists feeding on their anger. Why and when did you decide to write about them?
I have spent my career as a journalist, both as reporter and editor, tracking India’s economic development, meeting top ministers, entrepreneurs and executives from India and abroad; and attending summits from Delhi to Davos. I am a direct beneficiary of India’s ongoing economic liberalisation and freedom of expression that India’s urban middle classes have come to take for granted. But there is a growing disconnect I do not wish to keep quiet about.
Except for perhaps ‘unity’ based on the rupee, corruption, cinema and cricket, there is a grave disconnect between urban and rural India, and, even within urban India. This disconnect is economic, social and political. Seventy per cent of India is away from the ‘growth party’.

Tech tops financials in SP500

For the first time since the bubble burst earlier this decade, information technology stocks have overtaken financials as the largest sector by market value in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. But that alignment might not last for long -- soaring oil prices have helped lift the energy sector to a close third.
For the last 10 years, tech and financials have gone back and forth as the leading sector in the index. Tech grabbed about 32 percent of the S&P by early 2000, but quickly gave up that lead as the sector lost its luster amid the dot-com crash.
A little over a year later, financial stocks had become Wall Street's favorites, and kept the top spot in the S&P until this past Tuesday. While they never reached the heights tech did during the boom years, financials did account for more than 22 percent of the S&P by late 2006.
Now, both sectors hover just above 16 percent, with tech ahead marginally. And energy companies, led by oil producers like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., could be in position to soon take the lead.
SOURCE

SPDR SP Homebuilders (XHB)

Interesting chart pattern ; we might feel that we are about to head down , however that bullish crossover (50 and 200 days average) is telling me that XHB is about to pop back up.
We need to remain above 19 (that will confirm the higher lows pattern)

UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD)

I am not convinced yet. The 50 day average is still pointing down, and my short term signal (5 days is not above the 50 days).
The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. The fund is nondiversified.

iShares MSCI Germany Index (EWG)

The chart you see above is the DAX (German Index) , it gives us a better picture of the situation.
EWG gives us a bullish signal above (it is above the 200 day average) ; while the DAX is not !
We can clearly see how the 200 day average (on the DAX) was a real resistance level.
The DAX is probably going to test the 50 day average ; its a typical ABC pattern (see older posts) ; "A" is the break out above the 50 day, "B" is the usual pull back, "C", confirms the buy signal.
"C" right now is at 7250 (DAX)

UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID)

QID was oversold ; reading of minus 15% means that the price had a spread of 15% with its exp moving average (50 days).
Expected scenario ? attempt to test again the 200 day average, and back down again (see black arrow)

Dell Inc. (DELL)

On May 13th, I wrote that Dell's technicals where "improving" ; http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2008/05/dell-inc-dell.html

We finally managed to get over "21$", I am adding some shares at those levels, and will keep on adding more once we get over the 200 day average.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Stahler, The Columbus Dispatch

Source : STAHLER

UltraShort Oil and Gas ProShares (DUG)

For those of you following my Extreme Portfolio ; here is the latest update ;
DUG is up 7.49%
XLF is down 3.48%
Total is ; up 2%

Dug is still oversold, expecting a probable attempt to reach $30, a resistance level.



CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE), Euro Dollar analysis

As mentioned in the past posts, was expecting to see the Euro pull back to test the "5" day average, while the "5" day was crossing above the "50 day". You can notice on the chart the low is right on the "5" day".
What should we expect ? As mentioned in the past post, trend "X" is our stop loss level.
Target ? probably 1.60 ......... and then ? Do you see that huge channel ?
In my opinion that scenario could occur ;
1) We re test the highs (Level A)
2) Pull back sending us back down 1.5500 and lower .....re testing support (Level B)
3) Scenario is null if we shoot up above 1.6250 and remain above

Uganda attracts Turkish Investors

Poor technology has hindered Uganda's capacity to export food to the world market, the Vice-President, Prof. Gilbert Bukenya, has said.
"If we can get investors to come to Uganda and explore the raw materials, we are capable of producing huge amounts of food which can be exported," Bukenya said, adding that there was need for people to invest in food industries.
He made the remarks on Wednesday after the signing of mutual trade agreements between 35 African countries, including Uganda, with Turkey.
Under the agreement, Turkish and African investors will trade under tax incentives and government support.
SOURCE

Saudi Arabia Is Largest Investor in Korean Stock Market

Saudi Arabia has emerged the largest investor in the Korean stock market this year, replacing U.S. and British funds that until recently had enormous influence on the local market.
SOURCE

The cost of food: Facts and figures



The amount of money being spent globally on importing food is set to top $1 trillion (£528bn) in 2008, an influential report estimates.
Soaring food prices are the cause of the huge bill - likely to be up 26% on the 2007 total - said the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
SOURCE

Thursday, May 22, 2008

My Extreme Portfolio Update

Remember that I have a 12 months target for it. See older posts to keep track of it. The concept is simple ; I was looking for extreme oversold and overbought levels ; Oil and Financials !

UltraShort Oil and Gas ProShares (DUG) ;
380 shares bought @ 26.23$ (+4.37%).

Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) ;
390 bought @ 25.53$ (-2.38%)

Total = +0.99%

Ford Motor Co. (F)

I sold my shares of Ford (search blog and type in "Ford" to see old posts), however, long term technicals look good ...... is the bad news old news ?
Short term technicals (PPO) = sell.
U.S. automaker now expected to be "about break-even" in 2009 on a pretax basis and before special items, with strong results from Europe and South America. (Ford cars sell pretty well here in Belgium, France, and Eastern Europe)

iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)

The question to ask yourself now is ; do you get out or do you listen to thestreet.com inciting you to buy at these levels ?
Let me make something very clear ; I "only" trust certain emerging markets when they are oversold and down for many years .........why ? Its just a question of risk...... and I know Brazil.
Yes, its the oil story , but behind it lies a huge corrupted system ......with lots of accounting "errors" ...... so unless you have not resisded in emerging countries, focus on US or European shares. Or you could simply buy a US stock that benefits from exporting to Brazil :)
This chart tells me one thing ; its a huge parabolic rise ready to burst ......

CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)

Use the trend "X" as your stop loss ; expecting a little pull back to the crossover point (5 days and 50 days) ; next target is 1.60 ?

Treasury Note 10 Yr

114.16 (support)
Expecting a short term sideway trade before seing a break out ..... as far as the moving average is concerned, it seems to give us a "sell" signal

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

In my last post regarding AAPL, I mentioned that I was expecting a pull back ; followed by another turn upwards ; http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2008/05/apple-inc-aapl_17.html

I will sell my put options this morning. Expecting to see AAPL trade sideways, then resume its uptrend.

UPS plans new intra-Asia hub in China

United Parcel Service Inc. plans to move its intra-Asia air hub from the Philippines to Shenzhen, China, to cut at least a day off shipment times-in-transit for Asian customers.
Atlanta-based UPS (NYSE: UPS) said the new $180 million hub in southern China, near Hong Kong, also will better serve the manufacturing region just north of Shenzhen.
The hub is slated to open in 2010. The Shenzhen hub, expected to total about 1 million square feet, will include an express customs handling unit, cargo handling and cargo build-up areas and ramp handling operations. It will be able to process up to 18,000 pieces per hour, compared with the existing 7,500 pieces per hour in the Philippines. The new hub can be expanded easily to a capacity of 36,000 pieces per hour. It will employ about 400 people.
SOURCE