Crude oil on key support

Key support level is quite clear
Global economic slowdown = Good news for the $USD Dollar

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures TM ETN (VXX)

iPath SP 500 VIX Short Term Futures TM ETN (VXX)
Focus on that red arrow just above the $22 levels
Main down trend is "broken" ; Was that spike up above it a fake move ? We shall soon find out.
Support level is clear

Bonds are way overbought

If that chart did NOT have the words "Bonds, treasury, note" on it, I would have told you, buy, buy buy!
Clear uptrend, breaking all key resistances ....
But !!!! We are talking about BONDS here ... not internet stocks !!!!
Gut feeling says price could spike up and fall hard ... sending most global indexes back up.

Is Gold oversold ?

See that light blue thick arrow ?
Keep your eyes on it ...
You then have two clear resistance levels (tiny red arrows)
Allow Gold to pop up above those resistances, then buy the break out.
Otherwise .... sit and wait ....

Euro Dollar target

Euro Dollar target ;
1) Weekly chart
2) Pay attention to the LH 1 ; Lower highs first warning signal
3) LH 2 (Lower highs second warning signal) drove the Euro back down towards that key support level (see light blue rectangles)
4) Long, wide channel break down = Huge free fall ? We shall soon find out ...

Business activity in the Euro zone is "contracting" ....
ECB urget EU leaders to "define" their vision of the Euro !!! Define ?
Greeks are busy pulling out their money of their banks. I don't blame them ! But would they want to hold on to Euros ? I doubt they should ...

Just another day in Brussels

Pull back is over ?

SP 500 daily chart ;
Using a basic 200 days moving average, price seems to have found a key support right
above it. Use that average as your stop loss level.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) seems to have found a "key support level"
Both light green arrows (and the red ones a while ago) seem to confirm the importance of that level.
Next move, see blue arrows, channel pattern highly probable

SP 500 trading plan

Let's face it, a pull back was expected !
Is that key support (light green arrow) really broken or are we facing a "fake" move ?
Stay out, be patient, wait for a clear pattern

Euro crash expected ?

Tonight, around 8 PM Paris time, we will find out if Hollande or Sarkozy won the french elections.
1) Euro long term pattern is still bearish
2) Recent "wide channel" "suggested" the end of the down trend, however, the lower highs pattern, and the possible "break down" of that last key support (trigger could be that Sarkozy lost), could cause severe damage.
As usual, expect the unexpected ....

Apple Inc. (AAPL) scary chart

Apple Inc. (AAPL) scary chart ...
1) Focus on that "short trigger"
2) Target reflects the worst case scenario (I doubt it), but keep it in mind.
3) Gut feeling ? We break below that short trigger, then watch all those "value guys" start to buy.

Always start with a weekly chart

Rule number 1 before you trade, look at the big picture !
Most people would never use a monthly chart (you should), so the next best thing is a weekly chart.
What does it tell us ? (Looking at the GLD, Gold ETF)
A) Broken trend ; Only use this reliable trend since its the only one that connects the low with the highest low prior to the highest high !
B) Clear lower highs (Gold is taking a rest)
C) Not perfect, but clear triple support level

We are still in an uptrend, global economy seems to improve, but fear is still there, so do not expect gold to head down ...
Probability favors a "long" channel .... very hard to trade ....
How about just staying out ? Can you do that ?
Let's imagine you can NOT stay out, you feel the urge to "pull" the buy trigger, your fingers and your brain cannot handle the pain of NOT acting ....
Buy, but use the key support as your stop
Add positions (pyramid up only) as price rises

Sarkozy and the CAC 40

Are you following the french elections ? You should ....
If Sarkozy wins, see the light green scenario.
If Holland wins , see the black arrow scenario
Brussels is getting ready to receive thousands of french expats running away from France in order to save their savings ...
But ... experience teaches me that markets have their "own life" ...
So ? Expect the unexpected ... If Holland wins, we could see a huge rally ...
Bottom line ? Its ok to have an opinion, just get ready to change it ... FAST !

Sell in May and go away ?

Sell in May and go away ?
Current SP 500 chart shows the scenario I am expecting (blue arrows)
Not "very bearish" on the market, just expecting a long "channel pattern"

Just another day in Brussels

Flea market in Brussels (near the Grande Place)

Apple Inc. (AAPL) short trigger

Apple Inc. (AAPL) short trigger stands at $570
Let other fools try to push it again, but focus on that level to trigger a short position

How to find a clean entry level

1) Do NOT chase stocks ....
2) Allow price to zoom up, allow good news (fundamentals) to follow, the
allow price to pull back and find a reliable support.
3) See that key resistance level ? Its your "reliable" entry level (on a break out
with a possible GVN condition ; Gap, Volume and News)
4) Now, the hard part ; Patience ...
5) I can't teach you patience ... its impossible :)

Long term US Bonds

Long term US Bonds ;
1) Clean support level
2) Key resistance level is clear
3) Stuck in a clear long term channel
4) Gut feeling ? Bouncing from an oversold level
5) NOT bullish on bonds ....

Soon heading to Morocco

Probably one of my best investments !
Olive oil, land, cows ....
Regarding the markets, just focusing on an eventual trigger that will cause
a pull back in Apple.
Gold, Silver, probably oversold.
Bonds, oversold as well, but not bullish on them.
Is the crisis over ? No, far from it ... So learn to trade sideway markets for a while !

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario

Apple Inc. (AAPL) probable scenario ;
1) Weekly chart
2) Focus on that "last candle"
3) Blue arrows = scenario I have in mind
4) Buy the dip on extreme oversold/huge volume increase
5) Expect a long term "channel pattern"