Thursday, August 21, 2014

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)

Pepsico (PEP) daily chart, with its 5, 50, 200 EMAs
Main trend broken
Focus on that "first warning level"
Current pattern ; double top ? Too early to tell, use $91 as your early warning signal, and its
50 EMA current level as a "short trigger"

Jack Schwager's new book Market Sense and Nonsense

USD Dollar or Silver ?

Silver ETF (SLV) versus the $USD Dollar index, weekly chart
As mentioned earlier, both do NOT rise in tandem
The $USD has a clear "problem" with the 82 level
SLV is almost re testing once again that key support level
Gut feeling? Gold and Silver are way oversold, and still in a wide channel pattern.
The $USD now a safe heaven ? We shall soon find out

Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

Bank of America is showing signs of strength ... or is it a fake move?
If you are a buyer, focus on that stop loss level
The sudden drop in mid May, from its high in mid March tells me that we could
face an inverted ABC pattern

Forex du jour, GBP

Forex du jour, $GBP
Clear break down in support, slow down in the EU zone affecting the UK?

George Soros high put to call ratio on the SPX

Georges Soros top ten holdings
Note the high put to call ratio on the $SPX ?
Read the good article on Marketwatch 

Monday, August 18, 2014

Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ICPT)

3 things to focus on concerning ICPT ;
1) Key resistance (circle) price is right on that level
2) Candle reversal, yes we did get good news/volume, but that candle reversal should be a warning sign.
3) The "key level" means, now price needs to remain "above" that level and rise
4) We do have a "gap", will we first close it and rise again?
5) Bearish scenario? Price dips below 250
So far, bullish signal is intact, but we do have a few "warning signals"

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman discusses Anti fragility

Gold ETF (GLD)

Gold ETF $GLD weekly chart;
Downtrend is clear
Double bottom clear, followed by higher lows, pattern intact so far
Focus on these two recent patterns (see red arrows on chart)
The bullish scenario ; GLD breaks out above 127.5, and remains above it next week.
The neutral scenario ; GLD dips below 122.5, then rises to break out above the blue trend.
The bearish scenario ; GLD dips hard below 120 (doubt it) 

Apple (AAPL) chart updated

We are all waiting for the iphone 6. Key question ; is it priced in ?
We shall soon find out
Trading system is still bullish with NO apparent divergences, we just have a tiny trend line
that is currently acting as a resistance
Double top pattern? Too early to say, just focus on that warning level
Otherwise, stay long
Bearish reversal could occur if the market $SPX goes below 1930

Thursday, August 14, 2014

PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA)

Agricultural ETF clearly oversold !
The key level to focus on is probably its key support level
2 trading strategies come in mind here ; that huge move up is either a huge wide ABC pattern, or we just faced the biggest fake move ...
Gut feeling speaking here, money will come out of global indexes and park itself "somewhere"
Bullish on that sector, but also buying insurance with put options

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Natural Gas chart update

Clear break down in Natural Gas prices
Last key support stands @ 3.7500
Bullish reversal possible? Yes, if we get back up above that long term downtrend
Gut feeling? We are heading lower

Business cartoons you should keep in your office

Nikkei chart analysis

Nikkei weekly chart analysis ; Are we seeing a triple top pattern ?
As long as we remain in that long channel pattern (see light blue arrows), we are fine.
Is Japan really back? Or are we just slowing down due to global events?
Still good news for EU luxury makers, specially with a weaker Euro

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Gold miners ETF (GDX) daily chart tells me a few things ;
Higher lows
Clear resistance level
Trading system says BUY ! (5,50,200 EMAs) 

USD Dollar index hourly chart

Another attempt to push higher ($USD Index, hourly)
Key news events out there show that the $USD is still a safe heaven.
A drop in the Euro should have been a boost for EU exporters, but its not (at least yet).

Saturday, August 9, 2014

SP 500 update

I often also use those settings, 5 and 100 EMAs.
It seems that we did get a bounce up on the 100 EMA.
Notice what happened the last times we did get a bounce up on that level.
Gut feeling ? Pattern has changed
Focus on that short trigger level

Friday, August 8, 2014

Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)

Was that a fake break out in the Coal ETF ?
Or part of a bigger move to come ?
Focus on that key entry level to go long